Archive - Epoch AI

Why future AI agents will be trained to work together

Many multi-agent setups are based on fancy prompts, but this is unlikely to persist

Aug 23 •

and

Why AI's IMO gold medal is less informative than you think

The problems gave AI only a slim chance to show new capabilities

Aug 7 •

Quantifying the algorithmic improvement from reasoning models

Reasoning models were as big of an improvement as the Transformer, at least on some benchmarks

Aug 2 •

and

July 2025

Why China isn’t about to leap ahead of the West on compute

Chinese hardware is closing the gap, but major bottlenecks remain

Jul 26 •

Veronika Blablová

and

After the ChatGPT Moment: Measuring AI’s Adoption

How quickly has AI been diffusing through the economy?

Jul 17 •

and

What will the IMO tell us about AI math capabilities?

Most discussion about AI and the IMO focuses on gold medals, but that's not the thing to pay most attention to.

Jul 9 •

How big could an “AI Manhattan Project” get?

An AI Manhattan Project could accelerate compute scaling by two years

Jul 3 •

and

June 2025

AI and explosive growth redux

Two updates from our integrated assessment model of AI automation

Jun 20 •

Andrei Potlogea

and

The Epoch AI Brief - June 2025

New dataset, map and paper on supercomputers; an analysis of SWE-bench Verified; a compute thresholds model count interactive tool; a host of data…

Jun 18 •

Do the biorisk evaluations of AI labs actually measure the risk of developing bioweapons?

Anthropic has triggered "AI Safety Level 3" protections - but do their evaluations support this decision?

Jun 14 •

and

Beyond benchmark scores: Analyzing o3-mini’s mathematical reasoning

Why o3-mini is a "vibes-based inductive reasoner".

Jun 8 •

,

, and

May 2025

GPQA Diamond: What’s Left?

Multiple frontier models seem to be getting exactly 83% on GPQA diamond - but is this a sign of model limitations or benchmark saturation?

May 30 •

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