Streetlighting is a real risk in AI timeline forecasts. We extrapolate compute and time horizons because they're measurable, not because they track research capability directly. A task-level taxonomy of AI R&D is a useful instrument for reducing that gap.
Streetlighting is a real risk in AI timeline forecasts. We extrapolate compute and time horizons because they're measurable, not because they track research capability directly. A task-level taxonomy of AI R&D is a useful instrument for reducing that gap.