OpenAI may be a household name, but Anthropic could soon be earning more revenue.
Since each company hit $1B in annualized revenues, Anthropic has grown substantially faster (10× vs 3.4× per year) and could overtake OpenAI by mid-2026 if recent trends continue.
Extrapolating recent trends is an aggressive way to forecast revenues. Growth rates this high often slow as companies scale, and reporting from The Information indicates that both companies expect slower growth in 2026 than these trend lines imply. Still, the reporting suggests that a crossover is likely to happen this year or next.
Anthropic might have already started slowing down. Since July 2025, Anthropic has grown its revenue at a rate of 7×/year rather than 10×.
Data for this research comes from Epoch’s AI Companies database, which collects reports on revenues, valuations, staff counts, and much more.
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Number doesn't always go up, its much more likely they'll end up at a 3x-5x growth range this year.
Which is still absurd btw, but will be lucky to reach parity with OpenAI by the end of the year. Codex 5.3 and the recent improvements around fast inference are going to pull some of that agentic coding revenue back to OpenAI.